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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 34 yards to DEN 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 35 for 1 yard (13-B.Pringle).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model