Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 69

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(12:14) 6-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to KC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model