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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 30-P.Lindsay left end pushed ob at DEN 37 for 3 yards (92-T.Kpassagnon).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model