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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 76

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to KC 29, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 37 for 8 yards (43-J.Jones). PENALTY on KC-92-T.Kpassagnon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 37.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP