Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 54

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to KC 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-D.Thomas MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 13. 84-D.Thomas to KC 14 for 1 yard (26-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model