Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 56

Denver Broncos 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

(:11) 6-C.Wadman punts 19 yards to KC 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.74 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -1.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model