Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Denver Broncos 6

(1:10) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.25 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model