4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 15-P.Mahomes up the middle to DEN 3 for 2 yards (95-D.Wolfe). KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model