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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to JAX 3, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model