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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-J.Lambo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model