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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model