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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 93

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 41 for 3 yards (82-C.Carter). PENALTY on JAX-23-R.Armstead, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at JAX 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model