4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(:36) 4-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.85 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP