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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model