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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.09 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model