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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:26) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to CIN 46 for 2 yards (36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model