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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 4-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +3.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model