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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 38

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP