Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 95

Houston Texans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 28

(2:44) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger up the middle ran ob in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (14-Z.Pascal).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.42 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 95, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.08 EP