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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 8

Houston Texans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.50 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 8, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model