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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 13

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model