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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 17 for 6 yards (54-T.Bowser).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model