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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP