Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(8:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to BAL 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 27-C.Jones to BAL 28 for 2 yards (57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.27 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model