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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model