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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 8

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model