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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP