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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 16

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model