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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.07 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model