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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to CLE 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model