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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 99

Seattle Seahawks 25 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 23 yards to SEA 24, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 99, worth -6.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 53, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model