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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 1

Cleveland Browns 20 – Seattle Seahawks 25

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 24-N.Chubb right guard to SEA 2 for -1 yards (97-P.Ford; 99-Q.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +4.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.90 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model