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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 20 – Seattle Seahawks 25

What Actually Happened

(14:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 25-D.Hilliard to SEA 20 for 3 yards (50-K.Wright). Official Measurement on Play

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.60 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model