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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 20 – Seattle Seahawks 25

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 7-J.Gillan punts 61 yards to SEA 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model