4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP