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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 20 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 7-J.Gillan punt is BLOCKED by 83-D.Moore, Center-47-C.Hughlett, RECOVERED by SEA-17-M.Turner at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model