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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.23 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model