Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Minnesota Vikings 38

(6:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz to 50 for 17 yards (26-T.Waynes).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.72 EP