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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model