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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 2-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to PHI 9, Center-58-A.Cutting. 35-B.Scott pushed ob at PHI 22 for 13 yards (83-T.Conklin).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model