4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model