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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 63

New York Giants 14 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(2:52) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Slayton (24-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -1.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model