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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 14 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 30 yards to NE 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-48-J.Tauaefa.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP