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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 32

New England Patriots 21 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(9:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Edelman [47-A.Ogletree].

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model