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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NE 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP