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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 57

New England Patriots 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to NYG 25, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.05 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model