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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to NE 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton. PENALTY on NYG, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.61 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model