Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 96

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(5:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to JAX 46, Center-46-M.Orzech. 11-D.Harris to JAX 37 for 9 yards (48-L.Jacobs; 55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +1.13 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 96, worth -5.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model