Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(7:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 11 for no gain (34-J.Hardee; 48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.94 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model