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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model